Credit: Muhammad Farhad/iStock/Royalty-free

By Wayne Selcher, with the support of Perplexity AI* [Midterms] [Resumo] [Clipping da semana] 

For the first time, all three major race-rating services now show Democrats favored to win at least 218 House seats, the number needed for control. Below is a summary of the most recent key news regarding the midterms.  

Ratings and forecasts 

Cook Political Report: on Oct 23 it moved 19 House races toward Democrats. Democrats are now favored in 218 seats, with 17 Toss Ups, and Cook’s likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of 12–22 seats. [Cook Political Report] 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: it changed 28 House ratings, leaving 223 seats leaning Democratic. [Washington Examiner and Crystal Ball]. 

Inside Elections: it shifted 30 races toward Democrats and projects Democratic gains of 3–5 Senate seats and 10–20 House seats. [Roll Call and Inside Elections] 

Silver Bulletin: its model gives Democrats about a 75% chance of winning the Senate and 95% for the House. The prediction market Polymarket puts Democrats’ Senate odds at about 2-in-3. [Silver Bulletin and The Conversation] 

Polls and turnout 

Final NYT/Siena national poll: Democrats lead 52–41 among likely voters, and Trump’s approval is 34%. [The New York Times] 

Early votes: nearly 21 million had been cast by Oct 23, ahead of both 2018 and 2022 at the same point. [NPR]  

Trust in the count: in an AP-NORC poll, Democrats’ confidence that votes will be counted accurately fell from 75% in 2022 to 55%. [AP News]  

Money and legal fights 

Trump’s super PAC: MAGA Inc. has spent nearly $277 million since September and had $164 million left as of Oct 14. [AP News] 

Ad spending: the cycle total has reached $11.04 billion, according to AdImpact figures reported by trade outlet MediaPost. 

Alaska: the Justice Department sued to block certification of the Senate result if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. [CNBC]  

California: a federal appeals court panel was skeptical of the Justice Department’s bid to set aside about 20,000 mail ballots. [NBC News]  

The report also lists the new NYT/Inquirer/Siena polls of PA-1, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-10, but doesn’t summarize their results. Next Monday (Nov 2) is the last pre-election update, and the post-election wrap-ups start Nov 9. 

Stay tuned!

* Wayne A. Selcher, PhD, is Professor of International Studies Emeritus, Department of Political Science, Elizabethtown College, PA, USA, and a regular contributor to OPEU. His major academic interests are Comparative Politics, American society and politics in comparative context, American Foreign Policy, Latin American Politics and Foreign Policy (especially Brazil), and Internet use in international studies teaching and research. He is the creator and editor of the WWW Virtual Library: International Affairs Resources, a web guide for online international studies research in many topics. E-mail: wayneselcher@comcast.net.  

** Review and edit: Tatiana Teixeira. This content does not necessarily reflect the opinion of OPEU, or INCT-INEU.   

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