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By Wayne Selcher* [Midterms] [Resumo] [Clipping da semana] 

Here is the weekly report for October 12 of events concerning the 2026 US midterm elections, selected with the support of Perplexity AI. All the sources have been verified. 

Biggest development 

Forecasting 

Silver Bulletin’s forecast, using data through Oct 8, gives Democrats a 93.1% chance of winning the House and 74.8% for the Senate. It puts their chance of winning both chambers at 74.5%. The projected averages are 238.7 Democratic House seats and 52.2 Democratic Senate seats. The generic-ballot average is D+8.9 as of Oct 11, or D+9.6 likely-voter adjusted. Democrats passed 50% in the average for the first time. Last week’s D+9.0 figure was from Oct 2, so the headline margin is essentially flat. [Silver Bulletin] 

Other notable developments 

Voter rolls: On Oct 9, U.S. District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan struck down the Justice Department’s policy of checking state voter rolls against immigration databases. The effect on November may be limited by the 90-day bar on systematic removals. [CBS News]  

Race ratings: Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Florida’s 25th District (Moskowitz vs. Singer) from Toss Up to Leans Democratic. Its House board is now 214 Leans Democratic, 201 Leans Republican and 20 Toss Ups. [Sabato’s Crystal Ball] 

AI ads: Researchers Travis Ridout, Erika Franklin Fowler and Michael Franz tracked about $80M on nearly 170 AI-generated political ads. Republican-aligned sources accounted for 83% of the spending, and only 31% of ads disclosed AI use. [The Conversation] 

Money: AP reports Republican-aligned groups hold about $1B versus about $579M for major Democratic groups entering the final month. [Fortune] 

Candidates: Reuters found 41 of 62 high-stakes Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump. A Reuters/Ipsos poll put his approval at a career-low 32%. [Independent] 

Early voting: CNN found that in Ohio counties Trump won by 20-plus points, the Republican lead among affiliated early voters narrowed from 30 points to 5. This is an early, partial snapshot that doesn’t show candidate choice. [CNN] 

Redistricting: A federal panel upheld Tennessee’s Republican map splitting Memphis. The Supreme Court sent a Washington legislative-map challenge back to the Ninth Circuit, with no redrawing before November. [Democracy Docket]

* Wayne A. Selcher, PhD, is Professor of International Studies Emeritus, Department of Political Science, Elizabethtown College, PA, USA, and a regular contributor to OPEU. His major academic interests are Comparative Politics, American society and politics in comparative context, American Foreign Policy, Latin American Politics and Foreign Policy (especially Brazil), and Internet use in international studies teaching and research. He is the creator and editor of the WWW Virtual Library: International Affairs Resources, a web guide for online international studies research in many topics. E-mail: wayneselcher@comcast.net.  

** Review and edit: Tatiana Teixeira. This content does not necessarily reflect the opinion of OPEU, or INCT-INEU.   

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